Will AI begin to replace judges before 2030?
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36
Ṁ2862
2040
15%
Yes
73%
No
12%
Other

If a judge working for the government of any country is replaced by ai, will resolve to yes. They have to be completely replaced, not augmented by ai.

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Why can we add answers and why it closes the 24 December 2040?

When might this resolve "other"? Why isn't this just a straight yes/no? I can live with it but just wondered

in america? anywhere? what is a judge?

@yimbylord anywhere a judge is replaced by ai will resolve to yes

@YoaaauuIohheee a government official judge? Genuinely think there are going to be lots of edge cases because there is no standard "judge" role across the world

@yimbylord Good point 😐 I will update that

Buying yes on no took me a bit.

Judges to me seems to be one of the least replaceable professions. Not because AI can't do the work, but because people won't want it to.

@AlexShadley I respectfully disagree. As long as the logic was transparent and understood, people would trust it more. It could be designed to be fair... There may be unknown side effects though

@YoaaauuIohheee I think the trouble here is that judges often have to rule in cases of ambiguity where there's no obviously correct answer. It's a political task that's about human relationships. Fair enough though -- I suppose this market is here to capture differences of opinion. Thanks for making it!

@AlexShadley that's a valid point.