Will AI replace judges in trials?

130Ṁ412

2031

45%

chance

ALL

Any trial that normally would require human Judges qualifies. Must be real trials with real legal consequences, trial runs or simulations do not count.

Resolves NO at market close if the condition has not triggered by then.

I'm not a legal expert, so I'm happy to take advice about resolution criteria if you have any. The idea I want to explore is that using AI rather than humans could make trials faster and possibly fairer.

/Odoacre/will-ai-replace-judges-in-trials (this market)

/Odoacre/will-ai-replace-judges-and-jurors-i

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opened a Ṁ750 NO at 60% order

Limit orders up if anyone wants to bet Yes.

bought Ṁ40 YES5mo

This type of analysis will be the gateway:

https://x.com/DanHendrycks/status/1828880835992531317

10mo

In court proceedings, there are several instances you can go through. I think AI judges will be used as a cheap and fast instance before the official ones, which are offered by the private sector. @Odoacre How would you resolve the question then?

10mo

@Jan53274 as long as they are real trials with real legal consequences it would count. I'm assuming you'd be able to either accept the ai verdict or escalate to a human trial.

/Ernie/there-will-be-a-company-which-offer

By when? 2031 when the market ends?

@mariopasquato yes, by market close

What if it's only some trials somewhere?

@Gurkenglas only some trials is good enough, but "somewhere" is a bit vague. I would like this to be in a western country such as the US or EU, if only because it's going to be easier to verify

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