This market resolves to YES if
Real Residential Property Prices Index for China (linked below) crosses at or below 20.63 before 31 Dec 2030
Real Residential Property Prices for China (QCNR628BIS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
This market resolves to NO otherwise.
Inspiration:
Peter Zeihan argues that China faces a real-estate valuation collapse
The causes are:
There is an over-supply of housing in China - estimated 1.5 billion of units demand shortfall relative to stock of units
This over-supply was a result of over-building by companies like Evergrande and the fact that Chinese households pool 70-80% of their savings into property (being the mainly trusted investable asset to hold wealth in the country)
This over-building meets non-sufficient number of people under 45 years old in China who would demand housing units
Related questions
This question is excellent, buuut I think the title could use some work? Unless I’m misunderstanding it’s more like
“Will the value of Chinese housing stock fall below 20% of face value?” (By 2031)
If it won’t all fit, maybe “Chinese housing stock falls below 20% face value by 2031”
Idk, just suggestions - I really like the market! I’ll boost/subsidise it but wanted to give a chance to polish the title first so that more people bet