Will the value of Chinese housing stock fall below 20% of current value? (By 2031)
25
1kṀ704
2030
22%
chance

Inspiration:

  • Peter Zeihan argues that China faces a real-estate valuation collapse

  • The causes are:

    • There is an over-supply of housing in China - estimated 1.5 billion of units demand shortfall relative to stock of units

    • This over-supply was a result of over-building by companies like Evergrande and the fact that Chinese households pool 70-80% of their savings into property (being the mainly trusted investable asset to hold wealth in the country)

    • This over-building meets non-sufficient number of people under 45 years old in China who would demand housing units

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