• This market resolves to YES if

  • Real Residential Property Prices Index for China (linked below) crosses at or below 20.63 before 31 Dec 2030

  • Real Residential Property Prices for China (QCNR628BIS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

• This market resolves to NO otherwise.

Inspiration:

• Peter Zeihan argues that China faces a real-estate valuation collapse

  • In here: The Chinese Housing Crisis: Evergrande’s Bankruptcy - Zeihan on Geopolitics

• The causes are:

  • There is an over-supply of housing in China - estimated 1.5 billion of units demand shortfall relative to stock of units

  • This over-supply was a result of over-building by companies like Evergrande and the fact that Chinese households pool 70-80% of their savings into property (being the mainly trusted investable asset to hold wealth in the country)

  • This over-building meets non-sufficient number of people under 45 years old in China who would demand housing units