Background:

This question explores whether the recent tensions in the Middle East will escalate into a war.

Resolution Criteria:

• This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, etc) report a military conflict involving both the US and Iran resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.

• Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).

• This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2026.