Background

This question examines the timeline for China to develop a completely self-sufficient semiconductor industry, achieving technological independence across the entire chip supply chain. This would require developing domestic alternatives to replace critical foreign dependencies including advanced chip fabrication (TSMC), cutting-edge lithography equipment (ASML), high-precision optical systems (Zeiss), and other essential technologies currently subject to export controls and sanctions.

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve as "Yes" for a given year if

ALL of the following conditions are met:

1. Advanced Manufacturing Capability: A Chinese company must demonstrate volume production of logic chips at 5nm process node or smaller with competitive yields (at least 70%)

2. Equipment Independence: Chinese companies must supply at least 90% of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in Chinese fabs, including Extreme Ultraviolet lithography equipment.

3. Design Software Independence: Chinese EDA

(Electronic Design Automation) software must be used for at least 80% of chip designs produced by Chinese semiconductor companies

4. Market Viability: The domestically produced chips must be competitive in performance and cost with international alternatives and be successfully deployed in commercial products

5. Sustained Production: The fully domestic supply chain must maintain continuous operation for at

least 12 consecutive months without importing sanctioned equipment, materials, or intellectual property.