Background
This question examines the timeline for China to develop a completely self-sufficient semiconductor industry, achieving technological independence across the entire chip supply chain. This would require developing domestic alternatives to replace critical foreign dependencies including advanced chip fabrication (TSMC), cutting-edge lithography equipment (ASML), high-precision optical systems (Zeiss), and other essential technologies currently subject to export controls and sanctions.
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as "Yes" for a given year if
ALL of the following conditions are met:
1. Advanced Manufacturing Capability: A Chinese company must demonstrate volume production of logic chips at 5nm process node or smaller with competitive yields (at least 70%)
2. Equipment Independence: Chinese companies must supply at least 90% of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in Chinese fabs, including Extreme Ultraviolet lithography equipment.
3. Design Software Independence: Chinese EDA
(Electronic Design Automation) software must be used for at least 80% of chip designs produced by Chinese semiconductor companies
4. Market Viability: The domestically produced chips must be competitive in performance and cost with international alternatives and be successfully deployed in commercial products
5. Sustained Production: The fully domestic supply chain must maintain continuous operation for at
least 12 consecutive months without importing sanctioned equipment, materials, or intellectual property.
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@Yaqubali Ahh, I see. I assumed they did, but quick search says someone like ASML is the largest supplier, and they're based in the Netherlands. Thanks
Are you sure about the market-wide scope of 2 and 3?
IMO if one company demonstrates 1, 4, 5 while using 90% domestic equipment and 80% domestic EDA that's "a domestic supply chain not vulnerable to sanctions."
The existence of a legacy supply chain reliant on Western tech doesn't invalidate a domestic verticalized company that meets your constraints.
@NickParker2add points 2 and 3 are important. Design software is led by the US: EDA software is important. Lithography machines are necessary to have domestic manufacturing. Look into ASML role in lithography.
@Yaqubali I agree they’re key, my point is that the market should resolve if China creates a full stack of semi equipment + EDA software and at least one company is making <5nm chips on that stack.
As written the requirement is stricter: the China-native stack must be created and across ALL companies in China the native stack must displace/dominate the legacy stack.
Short of Americans bombing or stuxnetting the existing SMIC fabs, <2030 is impossible as written. But “one Chinese company with no western inputs making near-cutting edge chips economically” is imo possible and likely by 2029
@NickParker2add The aim of the question is to ask whether Chinese companies can make leading edge semi conductors (5 nm, 3 nm, etc) despite full 100% US sanctions.
If America completely bans Lithography equipment from ASML, Lenses from Zeiss, EDA software from American companies then China currently would not be able to produce the same semiconductor chips as TSMC on Taiwan.
My question is asking the more stringent question on when China would be able to produce leading edge semiconductor chips if the US puts 100% sanctions on China.
@Yaqubali please read my comments again, I think 2 and 3 are overly broad for your stated goals. Suppose US/China trade ends today, and by 2029 SMIC was making 50M chips a year using legacy western equipment from pre-tariffs, and NewSemi in China was making 10M chips a year using Chinese EDA, Chinese immersion litho at 5nm, Chinese wafer production, nothing western at all and selling at competitive prices to SMIC but not yet at the same scale.
In my opinion the existence of NewSemi should resolve YES 2029, but as written 2 and 3 resolve NO on the weighted average of NewSemi+SMIC being mostly western, and the market would resolve several years later when either SMIC end-of-lifed most of its western gear, or NewSemi outgrew them
@NickParker2add Lithography equipment usually requires spare parts and repairs from the original manufacturer. Therefore, past equipment is not going to last you a long time without help from the original manufacturer.
I understand your point. I really want to know when China will have companies that are as good as ASML & TSMC. I understand points 2 and 3 are stringent but I want to keep them. I want to know when Chinese semiconductor companies will catch up with western semiconductor companies.