What will be US tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors on July 1st, 2025?
29
100Ṁ829
Jul 1
66%
0%
1.1%
(0%, 5%)
10%
[5%, 25%)
17%
[25%, 50%)
5%
[50%, 100%)
0.8%
[100%, +∞%)

Taiwan produces over 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors.

US President Trump has indicated interest in tariffs on Taiwan. This is highly relevant to future of important industries like AI and global politics regarding a volatile region.

This question resolves to the interval of tariffs applied to Taiwanese semiconductors on July 1st, 2025 at noon eastern time.

Details:
- If the tariffs are not uniformly applied to all semiconductors (various carve outs), the question will resolve to the estimate of the amount Nvidia is likely paying for their most advanced for-sale chips assuming direct import.
- This will resolve based off of publications of US agencies (eg, USTR.gov or CBP.gov), or from best available estimates from reputable news sources.
- If Taiwan is no longer recognized by the USTR or other relevant offices of the US government at resolution then this question shall resolve N/A.

This resolution definition might be tweaked to improve the definition (in particular before Feb 28). Please let me know if you have feedback. I will not trade in this market.

Technology
Trump
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United States
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Trump calls for tariffs on computer chips, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals from Taiwan
https://venturebeat.com/business/trump-calls-for-tariffs-on-computer-chips-semiconductors-and-pharmaceuticals-from-taiwan/
In reference to the CHIPS act Trump is quoted as:
> ”Give everybody billions of dollars. They already have billions of dollars. They’ve got nothing but money Joe. They didn’t need money,” Trump said. “They needed an incentive. And the incentive is going to be they are not going to want to pay a 25, 50 or even 100% tax. They are going to build the factory with their own money. We don’t have to give them money. They are going to come in because it’s good for them to come in. You give them money and they don’t know what to do with it.”

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