Before what year will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid?
4
200Ṁ241
resolved Mar 26
ResolvedN/A
3%
2030
19%
2035
20%
2040
15%
2045
12%
2050
10%
2055
8%
2060
12%
Never

Clarification

The correct answer will resolve to the earliest date. For example if nuclear fusion is built in 2028 then the only correct answer is 2030.

Resolution Criteria

  1. “Yes” Resolution:
    The market resolves to Yes if before your selected date, at least one nuclear fusion facility meets these requirements:

    • The facility must demonstrate a net energy gain, producing more electrical energy than the total energy required to sustain and operate the reactor

    • Is connected to a power grid (so that homes, businesses, or other customers use this electricity).

    • Maintains a net electrical output of at least 1 megawatt to the grid.

    • Operates under the above conditions for a sustained period of at least 30 consecutive days.

  2. "Never" Resolution:

    Never means that nuclear fusion meeting those requirements was not build. If the date is January 1st, 2061 and the requirements have not been met then the question will resolve to Never.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Some people said this question was not clearly phrased so I created a better question to make it easier to understand.

https://manifold.markets/yaqubali/in-what-year-will-nuclear-fusion-su

The sun is currently supplying fusion energy to the electric grid through solar panels

sold Ṁ8 YES

The correct answer will resolve to the earliest date. For example if nuclear fusion is built in 2028 then the only correct answer is 2030.

Resolution Criteria

It would be way clearer for the title to be "When will Nuclear Fusion first supply power to an electric grid?" and have the options be dates ranges e.g. "2025-2030", "2031-2035" etc.

@TheAllMemeingEye thanks for recommending that. Will do that for the future.

@yaqubali I think you have the ability to edit options and the title right? If the resolution criteria remain the same then nobody can reasonably say they were conned

@TheAllMemeingEye I will keep this market the same.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules