If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred? | Manifold

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

4

1kṀ309

2029

37%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

See https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed and similar questions for AGI. The criteria is that one of them will resolve YES.

I don't see a lot of singularity questions but there is this: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/singularity-by-2030.

Will we get AGI before 2029?

57% chance. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience. Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2029 Here are markets with the same criteria: @/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed (this question) @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 Related markets: @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 Other questions for 2029: @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-79ed68d6492b@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-7d562d338323 @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7ddfe58feb89 Other point of reference for AGI: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid

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Related questions

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

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At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

When artificial general intelligence (AGI) exists, what will be true?

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