Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will be resolved using the same criteria as the market '[Will Robotaxis roll out in Austin?] (https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/will-robotaxis-roll-out-in-austin-a)'.
Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated this market will be resolved to N/A due to being underspecified.
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Can you clarify the resolution criteria? There are already some self-driving cars on the streets.
This market says nothing about a safety driver behind them.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-driverless-robotaxi-austin-tx-first-look/
@LarsOsborne Going to use the same criteria as this market to ruin the arb :( https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/will-robotaxis-roll-out-in-austin-a
@WallStreetCorgi there's a reason your market was at twice higher probability than the market you're citing, and that reason is your title doesn't match the description of that other market at all.
The cars Tesla have on the roads of Austin now are self-driving according to the definition above. They may or may not be SAE4, but that is a different question.
@Bair @NovemberKelly @LarsOsborne Point taken - I underspecified this one - going to N/A it since I don't know how else to be fair.
@WallStreetCorgi The fact that you aren't resolving the question as written is disappointing. I believe most people reading this market were taking it at face value, not assigning additional criteria.
Here's a clip of Teslas that don't appear to have safety drivers already driving in Austin: https://x.com/YIMBYLAND/status/1932613508551635435
@Kire_ I don't disagree with you - I think I just did a bad job specifying the question by quoting an Elon tweet directly instead of putting explicit rails on what I meant by that - fairest outcome to me seemed to be that no one won or lost.