Background

Tesla plans to launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025, as announced by Elon Musk. This is part of Tesla's broader autonomous vehicle strategy, which relies on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. Austin was selected as the initial launch city partly due to Texas' relatively lenient regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles compared to states like California.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Tesla launches a robotaxi service in Austin by the end of June 2025 that:

• Is considered at least SAE 4

• Allows members of the public to summon and ride in autonomous Tesla vehicles without a safety driver present

• Operates as a commercial service (whether paid or free during an initial period)

• Functions within at least some parts of Austin city limits

The market will resolve to NO if:

• The launch is delayed beyond June 2025

• The service launches but requires safety drivers to be present

• The service is limited to Tesla employees or a closed testing group rather than being available to the general public

• The service is restricted to set routes, ie like a bus line

• Tesla cancels or indefinitely postpones the Austin robotaxi plans

Considerations

Several factors could impact the timeline and success of this rollout:

1. Technical challenges with Tesla's FSD system, which has faced criticism regarding reliability and safety

2. Regulatory hurdles that might emerge despite Texas' current favorable environment

3. Public acceptance concerns, as some Austin residents and officials have expressed skepticism about autonomous vehicles following incidents with other operators

4. Production and supply chain issues that could delay vehicle availability

5. Tesla has a history of announcing ambitious timelines that are subsequently delayed

• Update 2025-04-28 (PST): Remote safety drivers/operators are not permitted. If the service depends on communication or cooperation with a remote driver (i.e., a cooperative system), it does not qualify as SAE 4 and will resolve to NO. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The determination of whether the service is considered SAE 4 will be influenced by how services like Waymo and Zoox are generally considered by the industry and media.

• Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are not persuaded that the resolution criteria are ambiguous. They do not anticipate resolving to N/A based on the ongoing debate, and will instead make a definitive YES/NO determination based on their interpretation of the existing criteria.

• Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has resolved this market to NO. See the linked comment for their detailed reasoning.