This market predicts the percentage change in the S&P 500 index between market close on November 5, 2024, and market close on November 12, 2024, conditional on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market takes inspiration from Chinmay's post:

I also want to capture how much the market might move for a given candidate.

Election Outcome:

• Condition: Donald Trump is declared the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

• Source: The election result will be determined based on official announcements from reputable sources such as The Associated Press, Reuters, or official government communications.

• If no winner is officially declared by November 12th, I will extend the market an additional week. This will continue each week until either a winner is declared, or November 26th is reached, whichever comes first.

Calculate the Percentage Change:

• Baseline Price: Closing price of the S&P 500 index on November 5, 2024.

• End Price: Closing price of the S&P 500 index on November 12, 2024.

• If the percentage change is exactly on a boundary (e.g., -2.00%, +2.00%), it will be included in the higher range.

Market Closures:

• If the stock market is closed on any of the specified dates, the next available closing price will be used.

Resolve the Market:

• The market will resolve YES to the option that corresponds to the calculated percentage change.

• All other options will resolve NO