How much would the S&P 500 change if Donald Trump died or became severely ill (enough to step down from office)?
2
1kṀ130
2029
37%
Down 2% or more (≤ -2.0%)
19%
Down 0.5% to 2% (-2.0% < x ≤ -0.5%)
15%
Between -0.5% and 0.5% (-0.5% < x < +0.5%)
15%
Up 0.5% to 2% (+0.5% ≤ x < +2.0%)
15%
Up 2% or more (≥ +2.0%)

  • The reference point will be the last S&P 500 close before the announcement becomes public.

  • The outcome will be based on the percentage change from that close to the close of the first full U.S. trading day after the announcement.

  • Example: If the announcement is made at 11:00am ET on a Tuesday, the reference price is Monday's close, and the resolution price is Wednesday's close.

  • If markets are closed on the day of the announcement (e.g. weekend), the reference point is the most recent close prior to market reopening.

  • For this market, 'announcement' means the first credible report from a major news outlet, such as AP, Reuters, or Bloomberg, that Donald Trump has either died, or that the presidency has been transferred due to his incapacitation under the 25th Amendment or resignation due to health reasons.

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