This market considers the election result and the change in the price of the S&P 500 between its close on Monday, November 4th 2024 to the time the race is called by AP.
Please suggest the best source to find stock data by the minute in case it's close and the election is called while the stock market is open.
How this would've resolved in
2020: Biden, S&P increases ($3,310.24 to $3,583.04)
2016: Trump, S&P 500 increases ($2,131.52 to $2,131.56)
2012: Obama, S&P 500 increases ($1,417.26 to $1,428.27)
2008: Obama, S&P 500 increases ($966.30 to $1,001.84)
2004: Bush, S&P 500 increases ($1,130.51 to $1,130.54)
2000: Bush, S&P 500 decreases ($1,432.19 to ~$1375 when Supreme Court decided/Gore conceded)
Quick check assuming election was called Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
1996: Clinton, up
1992: Clinton, down
1988: Bush, up
1984: Reagan, up
1980: Reagan, up
1,000
3.00Nothing. Ever. Happens.
What would an Election Unaware model that just samples from the distribution of weekly returns (%) for the last year say?
Then I guess modify play around with this simulation until you can create some plausible story of how the election shifts the election unaware baseline.
@MagnusAnderson There are actually more than two scenarios (Trump wins, Harris wins).
Republican sweep
Trump wins, split congress
Harris wins, split congress
Dem sweep
I would expect R sweep to be the best and D sweep to be the worst. The intermediate outcomes can actually both have positive returns