Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on Hezbollah's military response to the November 23, 2025 killing of Haytham Ali Tabatabai by December 31, 2025. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) documenting any military action taken by Hezbollah, including but not limited to: rocket or missile strikes into Israeli territory, cross-border attacks, drone operations, or other offensive military operations. Symbolic statements, threats, or non-military actions do not constitute a military response. The market resolves based on whether any such action occurs, not the scale or effectiveness of the response.

Background

Haytham Ali Tabatabai was killed in an Israeli strike on November 23, 2025, in Beirut's Haret Hreik neighborhood. He served as Hezbollah's chief of staff and was the group's second-in-command after Naim Qassem. He was appointed to this position after most of Hezbollah's senior military leaders were killed during the 2024 war.

Over the past year, Hezbollah has lost thousands of operatives and received $1 billion from Iran for reconstruction. The strike violated the November 2024 ceasefire agreement.

Considerations

Hezbollah's new leadership, led by Secretary-General Naim Qassem, will likely seek to avoid another wide-ranging conflict with Israel, and may postpone its response or settle for limited, symbolic action along the border or overseas. However, the killing of Tabatabai is pressuring the organization to execute a military response, and Hezbollah retains a wide range of military options. Hezbollah's standing within Lebanese politics has diminished following its wartime defeat, and the new Lebanese government is prioritizing disarmament of the group.