The ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), have threatened to leave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition if legislation exempting their community from military service is not passed. The Knesset's summer recess begins on July 31, 2025. This market resolves to 'Yes' if either Shas or UTJ officially withdraws from the coalition before this date. Official announcements from the parties or the Prime Minister's Office will serve as resolution sources. (ft.com)

• Update 2025-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced their intention to resolve the market to YES. Please see the creator's comment for their reasoning and the source.

• Update 2025-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced their intention to resolve the market to YES. Please see the creator's comment for their reasoning and the source.