
How will Netanyahu leave office?
23
Ṁ455Ṁ2.4k2028
17%
Knesset finishes its four year term, and he loses next election
27%
Knesset votes itself out, and he loses next election
0.8%
He resigns
5%
Vote of constructive non-confidence
3%
He dies of natural causes
1.4%
He is assassinated
46%
Other
Resolves as soon as Netanyahu is not prime minister of Israel.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
When will Benjamin Netanyahu be replaced as Prime Minister of Israel?
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2026?
59% chance
Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?
62% chance
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?
95% chance
[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
38% chance
Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2027?
36% chance
Will anyone but Netanyahu be Isreali PM before the end of 2029
85% chance
Sort by:
@josharian I’ve increased my bid on other assuming you will resolve other in that case. I believe it is highly likely to happen like this in 2026.
@Shump I’ve verified this. 61 PMs or more can definitely vote the Knesset out.
Source (Hebrew): https://www.idi.org.il/articles/39151
@Shump But won’t such a crisis simply lead to an election by a vote? How is this “other”?
People are also trading
Related questions
When will Benjamin Netanyahu be replaced as Prime Minister of Israel?
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2026?
59% chance
Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?
62% chance
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?
95% chance
[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
38% chance
Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2027?
36% chance
Will anyone but Netanyahu be Isreali PM before the end of 2029
85% chance