Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if a global military conflict occurring between January 1, 2101, and December 31, 2200, is widely recognized and historically categorized as "World War III" (or "World War 3").

To resolve YES, the conflict must meet at least one of the following objective thresholds within the specified timeframe:

1. Direct, sustained military conflict between two or more permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (or their functional successor states) resulting in at least 1,000,000 battle-related deaths.

2. A consensus of major international historical reference bodies (such as the Encyclopædia Britannica) or successor academic institutions formally classifying the conflict as "World War III".

If no such conflict occurs, or if global conflicts during this period do not meet these thresholds, the market resolves to NO.

Given the long-term nature of this market, resolution will rely on the historical record available as of December 31, 2200. If humanity or the means to record history no longer exists at that time due to an existential catastrophe, the market may resolve to YES if the catastrophe itself was caused by a global military conflict matching the criteria, or otherwise resolve according to the platform's standard protocols for untreatable/extinct markets.

Background

The 22nd century spans from January 1, 2101, through December 31, 2200. Long-term forecasting regarding global conflict often incorporates variables such as resource scarcity driven by climate change, the proliferation of automated or AI-driven warfare, nuclear deterrence stability, and shifts in multipolar power dynamics. While existential risk researchers model the probability of great power conflict, predicting military events on a century-long horizon remains highly speculative.