Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if a global military conflict occurring between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2100, is widely recognized as "World War III" (or "World War 3").
To resolve YES, the conflict must meet at least one of the following objective thresholds before the end of the 21st century:
Direct Great Power Conflict: Direct, sustained military conflict between two or more permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (or their functional successor states) resulting in at least 1,000,000 battle-related deaths.
Formal Historical Classification: A consensus of major international historical reference bodies (such as the Encyclopædia Britannica) formally classifying a conflict during this period as "World War III".
Widespread Media/Government Consensus: The military use of nuclear weapons in an armed conflict between two or more sovereign nations, where the conflict is widely characterized as "World War III" by at least three major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, and BBC News) or the official statements of at least three G20 governments.
If no conflict meeting these criteria occurs by December 31, 2100, the market resolves to NO.
Edge cases:
If an existential catastrophe (such as a total nuclear exchange) occurs during this period and destroys the platform or the capacity to record history, the market resolves to YES if the catastrophe was caused by a global military conflict.
If the UN Security Council is dissolved or restructured during this century, the criteria will apply to the recognized major global military powers at the time of the conflict.
Background
The 21st century spans from January 1, 2001, through December 31, 2100. Long-term forecasting on global conflict monitors geopolitical flashpoints involving major nuclear-armed powers, including the war in Ukraine, escalations in the Middle East, and potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. While existential risk researchers and military analysts model the probability of great power conflict, predicting military events on a century-long horizon remains highly speculative. This market establishes clear, historical, and casualty-based thresholds to distinguish a true global conflict from proxy wars or isolated regional escalations.
1,000