Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death?
Plus
2
Ṁ1102050
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Isaias Afwerki has been the dictator of Eritrea since its founding in 1993. He runs the country completely on his own, does not have a clear second-in-command, and does not have a clear successor in place.
If, after 5 years of his death, the PFDJ (ruling party) has lost power over the Eritrean government, the question will resolve YES. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
Edit: I'm so stupid, I forgot the possibility of it collapsing before his death. In such case, the question resolves YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2024?
35% chance
Will the current Israeli government last ~a full term?
23% chance
Will Israel topple the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of 2025?
21% chance
Will the existing China government collapse by 2025?
5% chance
Will Ethiopia retake the port of Assab in Eritrea by 2026?
20% chance
Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2025?
8% chance