Will the current Israeli government last ~a full term? | Manifold

Will the current Israeli government last ~a full term?

Shaked Koplewitz

18

closes 2026

31%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This resolves as Yes if the government does not declare intent to dissolve early before June 30, 2026. It resolves No if a declaration is made by 2026.06.30, with a dissolution date on or before 2026.07.31.

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Sort by:

Shaked Koplewitzbought Ṁ10 of YES

Point of clarification: this market only requires that the government lasts at least that long. If it lasts significantly longer (e.g. if the next election is postponed by a year or more) this would still settle as yes.

ProbablyPrince bought Ṁ10 NO from 32% to 31%

zzq bought Ṁ10 NO from 33% to 32%

Shai bought Ṁ15 YES from 32% to 33%

Shai bought Ṁ10 YES from 30% to 32%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 NO at 30% (cancelled) 🤖

Shai bought Ṁ15 YES from 28% to 32%

zzq filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ100 NO at 33%

zzq bought Ṁ30 NO from 31% to 28%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 YES at 31% (cancelled) 🤖

manifoldaccount bought Ṁ100 NO from 38% to 26%

manifoldaccount bought Ṁ10 NO from 40% to 38%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 NO at 40% (cancelled) 🤖

Dobus sold Ṁ20 NO from 39% to 43%

Shai sold Ṁ12 YES from 42% to 39%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 42% (cancelled) 🤖

Dobus bought Ṁ20 NO from 45% to 41%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 YES at 45% (cancelled) 🤖

zzq bought Ṁ20 NO from 48% to 43%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 NO at 48% (cancelled) 🤖

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ60 YES from 33% to 50%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ10 YES from 30% to 33%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ20 YES from 25% to 30%

Shai bought Ṁ7 YES from 23% to 25%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 NO at 23% (cancelled) 🤖

Shai bought Ṁ30 YES from 17% to 25%

Karsh sold Ṁ85 NO from 13% to 17%

Eliener Unowkysy bought Ṁ1 YES at 13%

Karsh bought Ṁ100 NO from 17% to 13%

zzq bought Ṁ30 NO from 19% to 17%

Karsh bought Ṁ100 NO from 28% to 19%

Elisha Heching bought Ṁ50 YES from 13% to 28%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 NO at 13%

zzq bought Ṁ10 NO from 14% to 13%

Yonatan Cale bought Ṁ7 NO at 14%

Karsh bought Ṁ30 NO from 16% to 14%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 16% (cancelled)

Karsh bought Ṁ20 NO from 16% to 14%

Karsh bought Ṁ40 NO from 19% to 16%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ8 YES at 19% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 17% (cancelled)

Amnonian bought Ṁ100 NO from 27% to 15%

Thomas Dingemanse bought Ṁ10 NO from 29% to 27%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ4 YES at 29% (cancelled)

MARLON MAY bought Ṁ30 NO from 43% to 26%

BRTD bought Ṁ18 NO from 59% to 43%

Wobbles bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 59%

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