Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if, within five years following the complete destruction of Iran's oil and gas sector, the current Iranian regime ceases to hold power. In case iran's oil and gas sector is not almost completely destroyed, resolves as N/A, no matter if regime change happened or not. Resolves as NO if, within 5 years following the complete destruction of iran's oil and gas sector, the iranian regime does NOT collapse. "Complete destruction" is defined as the total (or near total) cessation of oil and gas production and export capabilities. The regime's collapse is defined as the loss of control by the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) over the central government, leading to a fundamental change in governance. Verification will be based on credible news sources and official reports.

Background

Iran's economy is heavily reliant on its oil and gas sector, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Oil rents represent nearly 20% of iranian GDP, 60% of Iran's government revenue, and 80~90% of its exports. Its speculated half of all oil exports are given to the IRGC. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Iran?wprov=sfla1).

The country possesses the world's second-largest natural gas reserves and fourth-largest crude oil reserves. (dw.com) Despite these resources, Iran has faced energy shortages due to underinvestment, sanctions, and mismanagement. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

The Iranian regime has historically maintained power through mechanisms beyond economic strength, including political repression and control by the IRGC. (en.wikipedia.org) The complete destruction of the oil and gas sector would severely impact the economy, but the regime's resilience factors should be considered when predicting its potential collapse.