Claude 3 has launched. Over the next month will Manifold think near-term AGI is more likely?
10
280Ṁ401resolved Apr 8
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will track the movement of Manifold's largest near-term AGI market over the course of the month (see below).
Prior to Anthropic's announcement, this market stood at 40%. If this market stands at 41% or higher as of a month from now, this market resolves as Yes. If it stands at 40% or lower, this market resolves as No. I will be resolving it at a random time within 48 hours of April 4th so as to dissuade last-minute manipulation.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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