This market will track the movement of Manifold's largest near-term AGI market over the course of the month (see below).
Prior to Anthropic's announcement, this market stood at 40%. If this market stands at 41% or higher as of a month from now, this market resolves as Yes. If it stands at 40% or lower, this market resolves as No. I will be resolving it at a random time within 48 hours of April 4th so as to dissuade last-minute manipulation.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ129 | |
| 2 | Ṁ39 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
Were I to have guessed, I would have put the odds at around 50%, around where the market was hovering. A 20% jump is surprising to me.
Personally, having been alternating between using Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude to learn to code... Claude intuitively seems better than the others. I can't parse the causal influence here, but even having fairly aggressive agi timelines, I still find myself startled with progress coming faster than I would expect.