Claude 3 has launched. Over the next month will Manifold think near-term AGI is more likely?

10

280Ṁ401

resolved Apr 8

Resolved

YES

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market will track the movement of Manifold's largest near-term AGI market over the course of the month (see below).

Prior to Anthropic's announcement, this market stood at 40%. If this market stands at 41% or higher as of a month from now, this market resolves as Yes. If it stands at 40% or lower, this market resolves as No. I will be resolving it at a random time within 48 hours of April 4th so as to dissuade last-minute manipulation.

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Related questions

Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?

Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

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If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

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