Will (reputable media report that) AI-related power consumption rivals that of Bitcoin by 2026?
30
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Dec 31
73%
chance

Carbon consumption race to the bottom is on

Resolve YES if there is an article in a reputable media outlet reporting that ("according to estimates"), AI-related power consumption (in whatever way it's defined by the article) rivaled that of Bitcoin in one of the years: 2023, 2024, 2025.

If an article doesn't compare with Bitcoin, but gives a reasonable estimate that is bigger than an estimate of the Bitcoin power consumption for the same year coming from other sources, it also counts as YES.

If there is a good estimate for 2025 but it's still lower, it's a NO.

If noone publishes an estimate for 2025 before 1st of March, 2026, it's an N/A.

Some recent links:

Crypto: https://rmi.org/cryptocurrencys-energy-consumption-problem/ gives Bitcoin 127 TWh/year

A recent Bloomberg (https://archive.is/e93Q3 ) and this calculation ( https://towardsdatascience.com/chatgpts-electricity-consumption-7873483feac4 ) suggest 2.3 TWh / year for Google and some estimates for specific model training and usage

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