Resolves to "all loans paid back on time" if Tumbles does not owe anybody any mana. You can see how much mana Tumbles currently owes here:
/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
If Tumbles is late to pay off a loan he accepted before he is debt free, this market resolves to the month during which it occurred. Note that each monthly option does not specify a particular year.
Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
The market resolves to the month the loan was originally due, even if the payment is made late.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ39,273 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15,563 | |
| 3 | Ṁ10,167 | |
| 4 | Ṁ3,358 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3,072 |
People are also trading
Dangit, people seem to be catching on to the "bet on unlikely options when they sink down well below 1%" trick, no more "bet at 2000:1 odds" for me...
@Tumbles does this resolve to the month of the loan which was unpaid or to the date when you were late? like, if you were late for the Jan 31 loans, I think bets here interpret it as that would resolve to Jan, but the description says "resolves to the month during which it [being late to pay off a loan] occurred" which seems to me only happens at midnight PT Feb 1, from the other market description: "Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00)."
I note that the 1.4 million mana loan recently received from Manifold is not listed on your ledger in the "will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan" market, possibly because it has no due date, or possibly because it was sent to you unprompted rather than intentionally accepted. Does it count for the resolution of this market, or could you potentially use it to pay off all your other debts and then resolve this "all loans paid back on time"?
@DylanSlagh I think Certainty of Victory bid it up because that's when their loan is due