Did OpenAI make a breakthrough in Q* learning dramatically shortening AGI timelines?
8
127
แน178แน190
2026
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve true if evidence shows that before Sam Altman was fired, OpenAI made a breakthrough in combining Q* learning with LLMs that led to discontinuous capabilities advance.
Get แน600 play money
Related questions
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
21% chance
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
30% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
68% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
58% chance
Did OpenAI achieve weak AGI with GPT-4o?
POLL
Will the "OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI before 2025 end" market go below 10% before 2024 ends?
41% chance
Is Q* the A star pathfinding search combined with Q-learning, as claimed in a "tin hat time" tweet?
30% chance
Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?
76% chance