Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?
12
175
Ṁ417Ṁ250
2031
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to, uh, consensus of machine learning experts when the first AGI is known
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will Q* be legally considered AGI?
12% chance
Will AGI come from a technology significantly more advanced than transformers?
38% chance
What will be true about the person who creates AGI?
Will the first AGI be a large language model?
25% chance
Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?
25% chance
Who will be first to AGI
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI when it releases AGI?
43% chance
Will AGI be made up of narrow forms of AI working together when it is first reached?
35% chance
Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?
78% chance