Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing? | Manifold

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

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1kṀ710

2031

41%

chance

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1M

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Resolves to, uh, consensus of machine learning experts when the first AGI is known

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There's a lot of things that are potentially hard to connect clearly here

bought Ṁ75 YES

I think this is pretty likely. inference-time compute will be used a lot in the SOTA models

If someone still agrees with the <15% figure, bet against me

however they'll almost certainly never confirm that o1 comes out of the Q* developments so will the o1 tech count for the purpose of this market or no?

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Related questions

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Will Sam Altman be alive on the one year anniversary of strong AGI being credibly announced?

Will AI create the first AGI?

Did OpenAI make a breakthrough in Q* learning dramatically shortening AGI timelines?

Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research?

Is the Reuters report about AI breakthrough Q* contributing to Sam Altman's firing accurate?

Will AGI undergo a hard take-off?

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?

Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?

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