Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing? | Manifold

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

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2031

41%

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1M

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Resolves to, uh, consensus of machine learning experts when the first AGI is known

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There's a lot of things that are potentially hard to connect clearly here

bought Ṁ75 YES

I think this is pretty likely. inference-time compute will be used a lot in the SOTA models

If someone still agrees with the <15% figure, bet against me

however they'll almost certainly never confirm that o1 comes out of the Q* developments so will the o1 tech count for the purpose of this market or no?

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Is the Reuters report about AI breakthrough Q* contributing to Sam Altman's firing accurate?

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Does OpenAI's Q* 'breakthrough' represent a significant advance in AI capabilities?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

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