Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing? | Manifold

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

13

1kṀ710

2031

41%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to, uh, consensus of machine learning experts when the first AGI is known

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Will AI create the first AGI?

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?

Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?

Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals?

Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?

Sort by:

There's a lot of things that are potentially hard to connect clearly here

bought Ṁ75 YES

I think this is pretty likely. inference-time compute will be used a lot in the SOTA models

If someone still agrees with the <15% figure, bet against me

however they'll almost certainly never confirm that o1 comes out of the Q* developments so will the o1 tech count for the purpose of this market or no?

People are also trading

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Will AI create the first AGI?

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?

Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?

Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals?

Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?

Related questions

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Will AI create the first AGI?

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?

Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?

Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals?

Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy