Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?
13
1kṀ710
2031
41%
chance

Resolves to, uh, consensus of machine learning experts when the first AGI is known

AGI
OpenAI Crisis
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There's a lot of things that are potentially hard to connect clearly here

bought Ṁ75 YES

I think this is pretty likely. inference-time compute will be used a lot in the SOTA models

If someone still agrees with the <15% figure, bet against me

however they'll almost certainly never confirm that o1 comes out of the Q* developments so will the o1 tech count for the purpose of this market or no?

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41% chance
Did OpenAI make a breakthrough in Q* learning dramatically shortening AGI timelines?
22% chance
Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research?
26% chance
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16% chance
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