Odds of Biden winning is above 50% at the end of 2023
Odds of Biden winning is above 50% at the end of 2023
217
1.8kṀ52kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,064 | |
| 2 | Ṁ540 | |
| 3 | Ṁ354 | |
| 4 | Ṁ320 | |
| 5 | Ṁ259 |
Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Claude resolve this market “Yes” or “No”?
66% chance
Who will be elected mayor of New York City in 2025?
I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.
7% chance
Will some version of the Big Beautiful Bill Act be passed by the US
Senate in June?
39% chance
Will Elon Musk be given a Cabinet position by the end of June 2025?
1% chance
Will Trump administration recommend removing fluoride from water by July 2025?
6% chance
Which NYC boroughs will Andrew Cuomo win?
Who will be TIME's 2025 Person of the Year?
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 weeks of his inauguration?
3% chance
Will @dieworkwear successfully get $5k USD raised for Cat Rescue charities?
31% chance