Who will be elected mayor of New York City in 2025?
1.1k
49kṀ1.2m
Nov 6
91%
Zohran Mamdani
7%
Andrew Cuomo

New York City will hold mayoral elections on 4 November 2025. Eric Adams won the 2021 mayoral election, and is eligible to run again in 2025, but appears likely to face a contested primary.

This question resolves YES to the named individual who wins NYC's mayoral election in 2025, and NO to everyone else.

Who will be elected mayor of New York City in 2025?

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bought Ṁ1 YES

this is still anyone's race

filled a Ṁ1 YES at 10% order

@ZaneMiller

anything's possible

@Marnix if Zohran ends up in a wheelchair by the time of the election then this resolves YES

@Marnix Can’t wait for Zohran Mamdani to legally change his name to In Valid

I am rooting for Zohran, but Sliwa deserves to win just for this clip alone.

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1945654674910253271

bought Ṁ20 YES

@ZaneMiller god i hope he keeps being a public figure. i desperately need him to still be on tv saying the most unhinged shit you can imagine

https://manifold.markets/chomsky/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-SLPd9ugLzs

There are other elections in New York coming up, too

Clocks turned back @Manifold

@cash this is drastically undervalued compared to the linked market.

sold Ṁ818 YES

@Chumchulum there's no point in arbitraging at such a low probability

.

sold Ṁ67 YES

well guys it was fun while it lasted

bought Ṁ50 YES

Why is sliwa so high here? Seems to be less likely than either of cuomo or adams to even come in second let alone first

opened a Ṁ25,000 YES at 76% order

Mamdani for the win!!

bought Ṁ50 YES

Cuomo is expected to announce he's staying in the race, with the caveat that he will "ask everyone else to drop out come September, himself included, if they aren't in the lead," to which everyone else seems to have replied "What? No, that's stupid"

https://nypost.com/2025/07/13/us-news/andrew-cuomo-set-to-run-as-independent-in-nyc-mayoral-race/

I'm buying all the low shares at 0%. I can do VOLUME on this!

@MaybeNotDepends invalid's gonna sweep

Walden proposed a losers' primary and Cuomo is publicly considering it: https://x.com/katie_honan/status/1942261274940751955

@ZaneMiller for some reason i feel like Cuomo being picked as the best loser might not help him much

Why is Adams still so high? He’s not doing well in polls

bought Ṁ350 YES

@Ibozz91 Polls this far out are not worth much. I expect the full weight of "the establishment" to crash down on Zohran around October.

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