Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2026, SpaceX's Starship experiences a rapid unscheduled disassembly (RUD) at an altitude below 2 kilometers during any of its flights. A RUD is defined as an unplanned destruction or explosion of the vehicle(including self-destruction). Verification will be based on official SpaceX communications, reputable news outlets, and regulatory reports.

Background

A worst case RUD could theoretically(ideal) release 80% of the energy of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima

• Update 2025-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - RUD during descent is included.

  • The creator has clarified the scope of "Starship" for this market. Based on their statement that the market refers to "Starship the vehicle, not the second stage spacecraft," the resolution implications are:

  • A RUD of the integrated Starship stack (Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage together) counts.

  • However, a RUD that is only of the Starship upper stage (second stage spacecraft) – for example, after separation from the booster, or if the upper stage alone RUDs on the launchpad – does not count.

• Update 2025-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A RUD will only count if it involves the fully integrated Starship (Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage together).

  • A RUD of the Super Heavy booster alone will not count.

  • A RUD of the Starship upper stage alone will not count.

  • The RUD of the fully integrated Starship must occur before the scheduled separation of the Starship upper stage from the Super Heavy booster.

• Update 2025-09-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The full stack must achieve flight for a RUD to count.

  • For this market, flight begins when the engines fire, even if liftoff has not occurred.

  • RUD at ignition counts.

  • Incidents without engine firing (e.g., pre-ignition pad explosion, crane drop) do not count as flight.