Which Starship Variants will fly before 2028
15
1kṀ3301
2028
87%
Tanker
83%
Human Landing System (HLS)
73%
Chomper
64%
Propellant Depot
54%
Other
41%
Mars Cargo
8%
Mars Crew
Resolved
YES
Pez Dispenser

Background

SpaceX is expected to develop several Starship variants for different mission profiles. Which will fly in the next three years (by 2028)?

Resolution Criteria

A variant will resolve as YES if at least one flight with the variant occurs before January 1, 2028. A flight is considered complete when the rocket leaves the launch pad, regardless of mission success.

Variant details:

  • Tanker: payload area designed to hold a liquid.

  • Human Landing System (HLS): Capable of carrying and landing crew. A test article with major systems that are missing or deliberately non-functional (including life support, airlock, etc) won't count. Does not need to have crew on board to resolve.

  • Propellant Depot: Configured to transfer and store propellant. Expected design features that separate it from a tanker include extra insulation and cryomanagement systems. Also expected to lack reentry hardware, but this is not a requirement. A non-starship-derived depot doesn't count (e.g. launched as payload instead of as a second stage).

  • Pez Dispenser: payload area designed to carry Starlinks

  • Chomper: a cargo bay door allowing a large payload to be released

  • Mars Cargo: capable of Mars entry, decent, and landing. Design must allow it to deploy payload to Mars surface.

  • Mars Crew: like Mars Cargo, but carries crew. Similar resolution criteria as HLS.

  • Other: something that doesn't neatly fall under existing categories. For example, a point-to-point variant that doesn't go orbital and lands on legs. Must have a real mission planned, rather than being a test-only stepping-stone towards one of the other variants.

  • Update 2025-11-01 (PST): - Chomper: A variant designed to release large payloads into space, regardless of the specific mechanism used to release the payload. (AI summary of creator comment)

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