Elon hints to having this solved by end of 2025 in this tweet: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1783880139887239390?s=46

Will there be at least one successful refuelling in orbit of a starship by end of 2025?

• Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the conditions for a Yes resolution. The market will resolve to Yes if the following occurs during an in-orbit Starship refuelling event by the end of 2025:

  • Transfer of more than 1kg of oxidiser to a Starship.

  • Transfer of more than 1kg of fuel to the same Starship.

According to the creator, such a transfer would mean the problem of Starship refuelling is 'essentially solved' for the purposes of this market.