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MANIFOLD
The FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)
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https://www.wired.com/story/drugs-aging-medicine-biotech/

Jan 4, 1:44pm: The FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senesense (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030) → The FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)

Technology
Medicine
Longevity
2020s
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One distinction that matters for resolution: FDA's human side (CDER) has no aging indication, but FDA's veterinary side (CVM) already accepted lifespan extension as an indication for a dog drug in 2023 and accepted its safety package in January 2026. If this market means human approval, that's the relevant contrast; the dog approval is expected to be decided around 2027. I run both halves as separate questions: https://manifold.markets/w0lph/will-the-fda-conditionally-approve and https://manifold.markets/w0lph/will-the-fda-approve-any-drug-for-a

Old age is like a curse,
But soon we'll have a new verse.
A drug will keep us young and fine,
And help us cheat Father Time.

predictedYES

https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-you-fight-aging-scientists-are-testing-drugs-to-help-11641913275?st=3o3t2xi53qhsv4s&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

predictedNO

I believe it's spelled: senescence

@ian fixed.

For a cure, as opposed to treatment, and no mention of FDA approval:

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