This market regards the current Trump/Vance administration, including if J.D. Vance takes over from Donald Trump for any reason in the current presidential term ending January 20th, 2029.

If a nuclear weapon is confirmed detonated by the United States government, this market resolves Yes. This includes weapons testing (but not just hypothetical theories about Richter scale readings in Nevada). In order for a denied event (test or strike) to count, the evidence would have to be widely acknowledged by mainstream media, ie. CNN and WaPo and the BBC all saying that there was a seismic event AND a radioactive event AND major inside sources all saying the same thing. This can also resolve Yes if a US proxy uses a nuclear device with the Trump administration's confirmed approval and assistance, such as if the US provides Israel with a nuclear device and with intelligence to deploy it, which is then detonated. Likewise, if this is denied then a broad base of journalistic investigation would be needed to confirm it both happened and was in some necessary way assisted by the US.

The spirit of this market is whether the Trump administration will break the global civilizational taboo on nuclear weapons use, which is why it endeavors to include use in a denied test or by a proxy. The only country to definitively detonate a nuke since the 1990's has been North Korea. Feel free to ask questions in the comments.