Will New Glenn reach or exceed orbit before Starship?
10
58
Ṁ399Ṁ260
2025
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Vehicle has to make at least one full orbit before deorbiting. Deliberate suborbital flights, even if they had the capability to go orbital (like the last Starship flight) don't count.
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@dp9000 Ah, that's an interesting wrinkle - I wasn't aware that New Glenn wasn't shooting for orbit with their first mission. The spirit of the question is intended to be "which of these two programs will hit a common and easily comparable performance milestone first" and I think successfully achieving an interplanetary trajectory would be exceeding the requirements of achieving Earth orbit. I'm going to say yes here and change the question to "reach or exceed orbit" to account for this.
Good question!
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