See articles for context: https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/story/why-are-nasa-astronauts-sunita-williams-and-barry-wilmorestuck-in-space-and-how-might-they-get-down-437077-2024-07-13
Some edge cases
Resolves 50% if only one astronaut uses SpaceX
Does not have to be the incoming Dragon, as long as it is SpaceX
Shuttle return success irrelevant to resolution
1,000
3.00The astronauts are NOT trapped. They just can’t…you know…leave. People who characterize the astronauts as trapped are just trying to make Boeing look bad, but Boeing doesn’t need your help. They got this.
Butch and Sunni are doing real science and are getting rid of the emergency food supplies that were taking up so much room on the station. These two astronauts and their capsule can stay as long as they like; it’s not like people are lined up waiting to visit the ISS.
Hmm, looks like this might be a duplicate. I blame Manifold search being bad.
https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/what-vehicle-will-suni-and-butch-le
https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/which-milestones-will-starliner-ach
https://manifold.markets/Shihan/will-spacex-dragon-rescue-boeing-st