Boeing's first crewed Starliner mission is having some difficulties, and return has now been delayed until June 22 at the earliest. "This is the second delay in Starliner's scheduled return date"

https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-first-astronaut-mission-return-delayed-june-22

Resolves YES only if BOTH Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams both return to earth alive on a SpaceX dragon.

Resolves NO if anything else. Examples: If they return on some other craft, or one returns on a Russian craft, or one of them dies, etc.

[Edit Aug 2: If only one astronaut returns on a Dragon, this market stays open until there is certainty about the second astronaut.]