UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win? (Cumulative Market)
Basic
40
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Jul 6
98.7%
More than 202 seats (What Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party achieved at the 2019 election)
97%
More than 232 seats (What Ed Miliband's Labour Party achieved at the 2015 election)
97%
More than 258 seats (What Gordon Brown's Labour Party achieved at the 2010 election)
97%
More than 262 seats (What Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party achieved at the 2017 election)
96%
More than 271 seats (What Neil Kinnock's Labour Party achieved at the 1992 election)
96%
More than 306 seats (What David Cameron's Conservative Party achieved at the 2010 election)
96%
More than 317 seats (What Theresa May's Conservative Party achieved at the 2017 election)
95%
More than 339 seats (What Margaret Thatcher's Conservative Party achieved at the 1979 election)
93%
More than 355 seats (What Tony Blair's Labour Party achieved at the 2005 election)
92%
More than 365 seats (What Boris Johnson's Conservative Party achieved at the 2019 election)
87%
More than 376 seats (What Margaret Thatcher's Conservative Party achieved at the 1987 election)
85%
More than 385 seats
84%
More than 397 seats (What Margaret Thatcher's Conservative Party achieved at the 1983 election)
82%
More than 412 seats (What Tony Blair's Labour Party achieved at the 2001 election)
79%
More than 418 seats (What Tony Blair's Labour Party achieved at the 1997 election)
81%
More than 425 seats
71%
More than 430 seats
64%
More than 435 seats
57%
More than 441 seats (What the Earl Grey's Whigs achieved at the 1832 election)
33%
More than 470 seats (What Stanley Baldwin's Conservative Party achieved at the 1931 election)

This is a cumulative-independent market, which is probably the best way to represent these kinds of markets. This also uses previous general election results as benchmarks, which is also I think one of the better ways to represent these kinds of markets.

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I have been looking at the polling in details and I can say this with some certainty that Labour will win between 400-450 seats and the tories down to about 100

looks like a reasonable chance they win more than that ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿคž

Yeah, I think we're looking at >50% for 450+ seats at this point

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