UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win? (Cumulative Market)
112
5kṀ110k
resolved Jul 6
Resolved
YES
More than 202 seats (What Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party achieved at the 2019 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 232 seats (What Ed Miliband's Labour Party achieved at the 2015 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 258 seats (What Gordon Brown's Labour Party achieved at the 2010 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 262 seats (What Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party achieved at the 2017 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 271 seats (What Neil Kinnock's Labour Party achieved at the 1992 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 306 seats (What David Cameron's Conservative Party achieved at the 2010 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 317 seats (What Theresa May's Conservative Party achieved at the 2017 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 339 seats (What Margaret Thatcher's Conservative Party achieved at the 1979 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 355 seats (What Tony Blair's Labour Party achieved at the 2005 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 365 seats (What Boris Johnson's Conservative Party achieved at the 2019 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 376 seats (What Margaret Thatcher's Conservative Party achieved at the 1987 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 385 seats
Resolved
YES
More than 397 seats (What Margaret Thatcher's Conservative Party achieved at the 1983 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 412 seats (What Tony Blair's Labour Party achieved at the 2001 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 418 seats (What Tony Blair's Labour Party achieved at the 1997 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 425 seats
Resolved
NO
More than 430 seats
Resolved
NO
More than 435 seats
Resolved
NO
More than 441 seats (What the Earl Grey's Whigs achieved at the 1832 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 470 seats (What Stanley Baldwin's Conservative Party achieved at the 1931 election)

This is a cumulative-independent market, which is probably the best way to represent these kinds of markets. This also uses previous general election results as benchmarks, which is also I think one of the better ways to represent these kinds of markets.

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UK politics
UK General Election 2024
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@Tripping Per https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10009/ , Labour has won 411 with 1 undecided, which means that while 412 is theoretically possible, "more than 412" is not.

Some sites are adding the speaker seat to the Labour total as well which makes it 412 for Labour with 1 seat to go. I guess that's wrong and speaker's seat shouldn't be counted in the party total?

I mean, there's an argument to be made to count that way, but the 2001 total of 412 given as a comparison is exclusive of the Speaker (see, say, https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP01-54/RP01-54.pdf ).

Reporting is that the last seat is between SNP and the Lib Dems, so it shouldn't matter in the end.

And now in, LibDems get it: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqe6y0jvmrdo

Liberal Democrats win Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire, the final election result
Angus MacDonald won in Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire where the declaration was delayed by two recounts.
bought Ṁ50 NO

It's down to Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire on one hand and South Basildon and East Thurrock on the other; my crystal ball says the former goes to LD and the latter is apparently just barely Reform.

sold Ṁ9 YES

I agree, latter is close to a toss-up. Basildon and Billericay which is just north of this constituency was won by Tories by just 20 votes over Labour. Reform was close 3rd.

I think IS&WR leans towards SNP. The other seat could go any direction.

Recounts for both seats:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd16410q7neo

https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/24432622.chaos-full-recount-called-south-basildon-east-thurrock/

bought Ṁ50 YES

Dumfries & Galloway might decide if Labour end up with 412 or 413.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Neil Duncan-Jordan just won Poole for Labour by 18 votes!

Nice market, and I appreciate the context!

I have been looking at the polling in details and I can say this with some certainty that Labour will win between 400-450 seats and the tories down to about 100

looks like a reasonable chance they win more than that 🙂🤞

Yeah, I think we're looking at >50% for 450+ seats at this point

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