MANIFOLD
Who will be elected Federal Leader of South Africa's Democratic Alliance (DA)?
2
Ṁ125Ṁ22
Apr 10
19%
Geordin Hill-Lewis
16%
Solly Msimanga
16%
Chris Pappas
16%
Siviwe Gwarube
34%
Other

The Context (For International Traders) The Democratic Alliance (DA) is South Africa’s second-largest political party (holding 21.8% of the vote) and the primary anchor of the Government of National Unity (GNU). Since the 2024 elections, the DA has transitioned from being the official opposition to a key governing partner alongside the ANC.


On 4 February 2026, the incumbent Federal Leader, John Steenhuisen, announced he would not seek re-election to focus on his role as the national Minister of Agriculture. This election will determine who leads the party into the 2026 Local Government Elections and who will represent the DA’s interests at the highest level of South African government.


The Power Structure The DA operates on a federal model. The Federal Leader is the political head and the party's candidate for President of South Africa. The election is decided by delegates representing branches from across all nine provinces at the Federal Congress.


Key Dates & Market Mechanics

  • Nomination Window: Opens 27 February 2026. I will add official candidates as they are confirmed.

  • Congress Dates: The dates for the congress have not yet been announced but it is likely to be on the 4th - 5th April or the 11th-12th April. This market will Close at 08:00 AM SAST on the Saturday (the first day of the Congress).

  • Resolution: This market resolves to the individual officially announced as the winner by the Congress Presiding Officer.

Market context
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