Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labor Party?
8
395Ṁ1872029
23%
Tanya Plibersek
6%
Chris Bowen
36%
Jim Chalmers
5%
Richard Marles
4%
Bill Shorten
9%
Penny Wong
17%
The ALP leader has historically always been a serving member of the House of Representatives.
This market will only resolve to named individual people.
This market will not resolve to an acting leader, unless they become the permanent leader.
If no change of leadership occurs by the closing date, it will be extended.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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