Who will be elected leader of Your Party?
13
1kṀ4111
2026
57%
No leader elected by market close
45%
Jeremy Corbyn
43%
Zara Sultana

Your Party has had a fractious start. At one point it looked like both Jeremy Corbyn and Zara Sultana might be co-leaders. Is that less likely now? Or is there another candidate waiting in the wings?

Anyone who is elected leader at Your Party’s inaugural conference will resolve YES. If Your Party splits before conference in such a way that there are multiple successor parties who also elect leaders, these will also resolve YES.

If nobody is elected leader of Your Party or subsequent splinter parties by year end, then I will resolve to “No leader elected by market close”.

As this party has made clear statements of being democratic I will not accept anyone who claims leadership without something that at least resembles an election.

As this might be contentious, I will not be betting and am open to any clarifications or queries in the comments.

  • Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be based on executive power — effectively, who would be Prime Minister if the party won.

    • If there are co-leaders, all co-leaders resolve YES (a concurrent spokesperson title doesn’t change this).

    • If there is a single leader and a separate spokesperson, only the leader resolves YES; the spokesperson resolves NO.

  • Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Your Party elects a leadership committee with all members having equal authority, then all committee members resolve YES.

The "No leader elected by market close" option is only intended as a backstop for complete failure to elect any leader. It does not apply when a collective leadership structure is elected.

In hierarchical structures, only the top person resolves YES (as previously clarified).

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Just realised I really porked the “no leader elected by market close” by changing the close date. If anyone bet based on it being announced before 12:00 UK time then please let me know and I will refund you.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Noit did you just change it to a different time on the 31st December? You didn't change the day?

If that's right, I'm happy

@Fion I briefly set it to close at noon today because I thought they’d have decided by now

sold Ṁ20 NO

@Noit I've just realised, I think I've always been misreading the close date. It's the end of next year, is it? I thought it was the end of this year

@Noitnvm fixed

Seems unlikely now that nobody gets elected this weekend so there’s mana on the table here

sold Ṁ125 NO

@Noit hmm, guardian says "One key question for debate is whether the party should adopt a single leader or embrace a “collective, lay-member leadership model”"

Sounds like "no leader" is a valid option

@Noit https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/30/your-party-to-have-collective-leadership-zarah-sultana-jeremy-corbyn

So in terms of resolution, if nothing else changes by the end of the year, "no leader" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO? Or if there's a chair appointed, will that person be considered a "leader"?

You said if there's a split before the conference, multiple splinter parties' leaders could resolve YES. What about a split after the conference?

@Fion well the resolution date was just extended so I don’t think that applies anymore

@prismatic sorry all, I haven’t been keeping on top of this. To clarify my position:

The “no leader” was intended to act as a backstop for any failure to elect a leader at all. If they have a leadership committee elected with all equal levels of authority then everyone on that committee should resolve YES. The clarification below about non-leader roles was such that if there was a hierarchical structure then I’d only resolve the top person to YES.

@Noit hmm, this seems thornier than I thought. I've sold all my positions. I'm not clear on what counts as "the party" (in the event of splinter parties' etc), what counts as "leader" (e.g. a committee that is all equal in name but has a chair with significant power, or the opposite - a named leader with no power) or even when the close date is or should be.

It's not your fault it's thorny and I think you've done a good job of trying to make a market out of it, but I think it's not for me.

@Fion it seemed likely that there will be some kind of leadership structure elected this weekend which is why I felt it was a good call to pull the date forward, but given it took them until this afternoon to decide whether they’d have a single leader at all so I’m just not taking anything for granted now.

There can be only one. Unless they splinter before electing their first leader.

For reference, I’ll not be resolving Jeremy Corbyn on the basis of the Your Party registration, at this point I’m treating it purely as an administrative thing because conference and election of a leader have not yet happened.

How lenient will you be with non-"leader" leadership titles, or frontman positions alongside a formal collective leadership, like "spokesperson" or "coordinator" or other (actual or nominal) alternatives?

@MmmmpUZO I’m looking at executive power here, if we have co-leaders and one is a spokesperson also then I’d resolve both YES, if we have one leader and one spokesperson then the spokesperson would be NO.

A helpful way of framing how I’m thinking about this would be “if Your Party got a surge in support at the next election, who in the structure is Prime Minister?”

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