Eliezer Yudkowsky stated, in regards to AI risk, "Be willing to destroy a rogue datacenter by airstrike." Is this going to happen? If an AI-aligned datacenter is attacked, this question resolves YES. If not, NO.
Minor vandalism or protest-related damage would not qualify.
Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if there is clear intentionality to attack a data center to oppose AI development, even if the attack is stopped before causing significant damage (e.g., if attackers are stopped after breaking in but before destroying equipment). Or if like the air strike gets destroyed or misses lol
Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cyberattacks: Only physical attacks count for resolution. Ransomware or similar cyberattacks that don't cause physical damage would not qualify. However, if a cyberattack's goal is to cause physical damage (e.g., making servers overheat and catch fire) and this at least partially happens, it would resolve YES.
Update 2025-11-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Lone wolf attacks: The attack must have a realistic possibility of destroying or meaningfully damaging the data center's capabilities. A person merely shooting at a building would not qualify, even if property is damaged or someone is harmed. The market requires a serious attack that could meaningfully destroy the data center's capabilities.
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How about cyberattacks? In the spirit of the quote, I'm talking more about physical attacks. So if it's a ransomware, even if Sam Altman has to pay $10 million [KROMER] to get his password changed back, that wouldn't count.
But it the goal of the cyberattacks would be making all the servers overheat and catch on fire, then I would resolve YES! That would have to at least sorta happen though. I wouldn't count someone online saying they tried to do Stuxnet 2
@Tomoffer Yeah, I'm talking about a serious attack, with a serious dollar amount level of damage.
However LLM companies are kinda notorious for making up numbers, so I don't think I'll be trusting what they say. It doesn't have to be air strike level damage- a mob of people breaking into the server rooms and destroying them by spraying fire extinguishers would definitely suffice.
@Tomoffer But I also would consider it to resolve yes if the intentionality is there. If the mob makes it in before being mowed down by Gatling guns I would still resolve yes.
@TiredCliche What about a lone wolf attack, my least favorite type of wolf attack? In my view, it actually has to have a possibility of destruction for the act to be valid. A person shooting at a building would not resolve yes. It might destroy something. Someone might die. I don't want to dismiss those things.
But this market is about a serious attack against a data center that could meaningfully destroy its capabilities in some way.