Will penalties for NATO countries not meeting the 2% of GDP spending target be put in place before the end of 2028?
6
130Ṁ110
2029
38%
chance

A Trump advisor has suggested penalizing NATO members who do not meet the commitment to spending at least 2% of their GDP on their military.

This market will resolve to YES if, before the end of 2028, an official policy is made by any NATO country that specifically penalizes all of the other NATO members who do not meet the 2% spending target. Examples of penalties that would resolve this market to YES include (but are not limited to):

  • Losing Article 5 protections

  • Trade tariffs

  • Losing access to shared military equipment

If such a policy is adopted but it will only start to penalize members after a certain time period it will still count.

Market context
Politics
NATO
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