Will Boeing's Starliner return with an astronaut?
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183
Ṁ200k
resolved Sep 7
Resolved
NO

Following an iffy docking at the International Space Station last week, Boeing managed to deliver a pair of NASA astronauts to the orbital lab. The stressful Starliner saga continues as the crew capsule developed more leaks in its service module. NASA is currently evaluating its ability to return the duo back to Earth.

In an update shared on Monday, NASA revealed that the Starliner teams are assessing the impact that five helium leaks would have on the remainder of the mission. “While Starliner is docked, all the manifolds are closed per normal mission operations preventing helium loss from the tanks,” the space agency wrote.

Source:
https://gizmodo.com/boeing-starliner-spacecraft-fifth-helium-leak-iss-nasa-1851534977

This market resolves yes if the currently docked Starliner returns with an astronaut. It could be any of the people on the ISS onboard. This market resolves NO if it undocks with no astronaut.

FINE PRINT:
If Starliner undocks, a mission critical error happens and they redock, the market is extended.

If it explodes and kills them, still resolves YES.

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@TimothyBandors Resolves No

Hadfield roasting Boeing now lol

@Blomfilter Are ghosts considered astronauts? /s

Fuck Nasa, Fuck Boeing, Fuck Starliner, I lost so much Mana. 😭😭

Always bet on Berger

also always bet on human incompetence and dishonesty

I lost a decent chunk of mana on this, spread across various Starliner markets, but I think NASA made the right call.

NASA should do bold things, and should absolutely take risks to accomplish those things. But this wasn't a bold thing, it was a qualification run for a backup crew vehicle. Minimizing risks is the right call here, and I trust that they tried to judge those risks fairly.

That said, their PR around the situation was pretty terrible. "Never A Straight Answer" indeed.

I did comment how strange it was when the market got to like 99.8% yes

I'm going to wait until starliner undocks to resolve since I didn't mention who had to be on it. There technically could be an unrelated emergency on the ISS and Starliner happens to be right place right time. Any objections?

Seems alright, could happen though the chances are low. I'd also be happy if you resolved it now and if anything weird happens ask the mods to re-resolve it. But I don't think I need my mana before September 6, unless IFT5 is earlier than expected!

Since my YES position is worthless now, I guess I might as well hold on to it until the event happens.

Is there a 1% chance that someone will be napping in Starliner and be awakened by the sound of it undocking? Maybe!

Dawn of the final day. Will starliner become a permanent cancer on the ISS? Will starliner go kaboom? Will Elon save them? Let's find out!

opened a Ṁ1,050 YES at 15% order

Yes limit at 15 if someone wants it

Today from nyt: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/science/boeing-starliner-nasa-spacex.html

NASA Says Boeing Starliner Astronauts May Fly Home on SpaceX in 2025

Under the contingency plan, a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule would travel to the space station with two astronauts instead of its planned crew of four. Ms. Williams and Mr. Wilmore would then join as full-time members of the space station crew for a half-year stay, returning on the Crew Dragon around next February.

...

[Earlier in the article]

“We could take either path,” Ken Bowersox, NASA’s associate administrator for the space operations mission directorate, said during a news conference on Wednesday. “And reasonable people could pick either path.”

I extended the resolution timer. Nasa's 8 day mission has a new eta of ~400-600 days

The real question is: what is Nancy Pelosi's opinion on this?

Another huge win. Time to place a limit YES order and take my 10x profits.

The best strategy for earning mana is to buy these markets that are way off in the 3-5% (or 95-97%) range, and then sell when they fall to even odds, as people wake up to the possibility that they may be wrong. Then you sell out once it's a coin toss.

This worked with Shapiro, and it worked here, and it will probably work with Harris when I sell the 3% shares I bought in her after the convention.

had to sell to dump mana intto Trump X Space w/ Elon markets

NASA chief will make the final decision on how Starliner crew flies home

"I especially have confidence since I have the final decision."

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/nasa-confirms-slip-of-crew-9-launch-to-late-september-for-flexibility/

lol, it's dumber than even I thought:

However, there is also another surprising reason for the delay—the need to update Starliner’s flight software. Three separate, well-placed sources have confirmed to Ars that the current flight software on board Starliner cannot perform an automated undocking from the space station and entry into Earth’s atmosphere.

At first blush, this seems absurd. After all, Boeing’s Orbital Flight Test 2 mission in May 2022 was a fully automated test of the Starliner vehicle. During this mission, the spacecraft flew up to the space station without crew on board and then returned to Earth six days later. Although the 2022 flight test was completed by a different Starliner vehicle, it clearly demonstrated the ability of the program's flight software to autonomously dock and return to Earth. Boeing did not respond to a media query about why this capability was removed for the crew flight test.

Yeah, but this does create a minor update towards crewed undocking... Cos they're forced to do that if they don't want to rely on untested software.

I think that is countered by additional confirmation of the very real contingency planning underway to reprogram starliner for unmanned departure and to potentially reconfigure the dragon mission to support a rescue.

I predicted Starliner being unable to undock and becoming a tumor on the ISS, funny to see it close to reality

They will have starliner up on cinderblocks in the driveway, but I'm sure there is still street parking

No street parking allowed around the ISS. There's yellow lines up to 200 meters out.

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