Following an iffy docking at the International Space Station last week, Boeing managed to deliver a pair of NASA astronauts to the orbital lab. The stressful Starliner saga continues as the crew capsule developed more leaks in its service module. NASA is currently evaluating its ability to return the duo back to Earth.
In an update shared on Monday, NASA revealed that the Starliner teams are assessing the impact that five helium leaks would have on the remainder of the mission. “While Starliner is docked, all the manifolds are closed per normal mission operations preventing helium loss from the tanks,” the space agency wrote.
Source:
https://gizmodo.com/boeing-starliner-spacecraft-fifth-helium-leak-iss-nasa-1851534977
This market resolves yes if the currently docked Starliner returns with an astronaut. It could be any of the people on the ISS onboard. This market resolves NO if it undocks with no astronaut.
FINE PRINT:
If Starliner undocks, a mission critical error happens and they redock, the market is extended.
If it explodes and kills them, still resolves YES.
1,000
3.00
I lost a decent chunk of mana on this, spread across various Starliner markets, but I think NASA made the right call.
NASA should do bold things, and should absolutely take risks to accomplish those things. But this wasn't a bold thing, it was a qualification run for a backup crew vehicle. Minimizing risks is the right call here, and I trust that they tried to judge those risks fairly.
That said, their PR around the situation was pretty terrible. "Never A Straight Answer" indeed.
I'm going to wait until starliner undocks to resolve since I didn't mention who had to be on it. There technically could be an unrelated emergency on the ISS and Starliner happens to be right place right time. Any objections?
Since my YES position is worthless now, I guess I might as well hold on to it until the event happens.
Is there a 1% chance that someone will be napping in Starliner and be awakened by the sound of it undocking? Maybe!
Today from nyt: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/science/boeing-starliner-nasa-spacex.html
NASA Says Boeing Starliner Astronauts May Fly Home on SpaceX in 2025
Under the contingency plan, a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule would travel to the space station with two astronauts instead of its planned crew of four. Ms. Williams and Mr. Wilmore would then join as full-time members of the space station crew for a half-year stay, returning on the Crew Dragon around next February.
...
[Earlier in the article]
“We could take either path,” Ken Bowersox, NASA’s associate administrator for the space operations mission directorate, said during a news conference on Wednesday. “And reasonable people could pick either path.”
Another huge win. Time to place a limit YES order and take my 10x profits.
The best strategy for earning mana is to buy these markets that are way off in the 3-5% (or 95-97%) range, and then sell when they fall to even odds, as people wake up to the possibility that they may be wrong. Then you sell out once it's a coin toss.
This worked with Shapiro, and it worked here, and it will probably work with Harris when I sell the 3% shares I bought in her after the convention.
NASA chief will make the final decision on how Starliner crew flies home
"I especially have confidence since I have the final decision."
Heads up everyone new 🍔 just dropped
lol, it's dumber than even I thought:
However, there is also another surprising reason for the delay—the need to update Starliner’s flight software. Three separate, well-placed sources have confirmed to Ars that the current flight software on board Starliner cannot perform an automated undocking from the space station and entry into Earth’s atmosphere.
At first blush, this seems absurd. After all, Boeing’s Orbital Flight Test 2 mission in May 2022 was a fully automated test of the Starliner vehicle. During this mission, the spacecraft flew up to the space station without crew on board and then returned to Earth six days later. Although the 2022 flight test was completed by a different Starliner vehicle, it clearly demonstrated the ability of the program's flight software to autonomously dock and return to Earth. Boeing did not respond to a media query about why this capability was removed for the crew flight test.