If I ask Bryan Caplan in Frankfurt to create a market, will he create one?
If I ask Bryan Caplan in Frankfurt to create a market, will he create one?
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390Ṁ3176resolved Jul 5
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He's going to be in Frankfurt on June 4, 27 and 28. If I go there and ask him to make a market will he make one?
Going there would cost me about 20€ so I'll only go if I'm in the mood to visit Frankfurt and the Market thinks it likely he will agree to make a market. Or if someone sends me 2500M.
Related to this Market.
Will resolve N/A if I don't go.
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The very generous @firstuserhere has sent me 3000M. So I have booked the train ticket to (and back from) Frankfurt. Where I will hopefully be able to convince Caplan to become an active manifold user. (If you like what I'm doing, anybody who want's can always send me more mana so I can pay for some nice food while in Frankfurt.)
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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