Will 2 or more of these 8 famous folks create a market?
closes 2024

Famous folks are:

  • Robin Hanson

  • Bryan Caplan

  • Anders Sandberg

  • William MacAskill

  • Dylan Matthews

  • Holden Karnofsky

  • Noah Smith

  • Vitalik Buterin

As taken from the Manifold Adoption group.

This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.

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Timothy avatar
Timothyis predicting YES at 64%

After asking if anyone would pay for my trip to ask Caplan, the very generous @firstuserhere has sent me 3000M. So I have booked the train ticket to (and back from) Frankfurt. Where I will hopefully be able to convince Caplan to become an active manifold user.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhereis predicting YES at 64%

@Timothy that's awesome, enjoy the trip!

Timothy avatar
Timothybought Ṁ70 of YES
Hyperpolitan avatar
Hyperpolitanbought Ṁ10 of YES

I bet on Vitalik

Timothy avatar
Timothybought Ṁ30 of YES

Betting yes, and if it looks like none of these people are going to create a market I am going to email them asking to create a market.

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanks

@TimothyCurrie I have a way to get people to think of market questions.

Imagine you have a crystal ball that will give probabilities in response to yes/no questions. The crystal ball functions by peering into the minds of people across all possible futures, so it is best to ask questions that will have a publicly known answer by a date specified in the question. You can ask as many questions as you want. What questions would you ask?

Manifold supports more kinds of markets than that, but I think it's a good start for someone new.

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munn

@LukeHanks Source? Did you get that from somewhere, or think of it yourself? That’s really good!

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanks (edited)

@SaulMunn I thought of it myself. Thanks!

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