Famous folks are:
Robin Hanson
Bryan Caplan
Anders Sandberg
William MacAskill
Dylan Matthews
Holden Karnofsky
Noah Smith
Vitalik Buterin
As taken from the Manifold Adoption group.
This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.
After asking if anyone would pay for my trip to ask Caplan, the very generous @firstuserhere has sent me 3000M. So I have booked the train ticket to (and back from) Frankfurt. Where I will hopefully be able to convince Caplan to become an active manifold user.
Betting yes, and if it looks like none of these people are going to create a market I am going to email them asking to create a market.
@TimothyCurrie I have a way to get people to think of market questions.
Imagine you have a crystal ball that will give probabilities in response to yes/no questions. The crystal ball functions by peering into the minds of people across all possible futures, so it is best to ask questions that will have a publicly known answer by a date specified in the question. You can ask as many questions as you want. What questions would you ask?
Manifold supports more kinds of markets than that, but I think it's a good start for someone new.
@LukeHanks Source? Did you get that from somewhere, or think of it yourself? That’s really good!
