TimP avatar
Tim P
closes Dec 31, 2025
Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2025?
26%
chance

Resolves yes if there is a plant delivering electricity at any point during that year.

#politics #world #technology #energy


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Adam avatar
Adam
is predicting YES at 25%

Does a smaller-scale research reactor count (assuming it produces electricity)? Does it have to be connected to the grid?

Like I'm guessing you meant only "baseload grid-scale power generation reactors" but one naive reading of this would say that it should resolve true if HMS Astute was docked quayside in Hamburg for some reason.

TimP avatar
Tim P
is predicting NO at 25%

@Adam : Ok, yeah I think it should provide power to the grid. (Though maybe to industry should count to?)

TimP avatar
Tim P
is predicting NO at 50%

Ah, I miss the image bot.

You make both reasonable points.

EvanRichards avatar
Evan Richards
bought Ṁ45 of YES

Currently two running on standby, seems like public sentiment has changed since Russian gas became a risk:

https://nuklearia.de/2021/06/16/umfragen-mehrheit-der-deutschen-will-kernkraft-fuer-den-klimaschutz-2/

Jannik avatar
Jannik
bought Ṁ70 of NO

As a German, this market seems to be way too high. The current government decided to shut down all nuclear powerplants in 2023 and will be in power till 2025.