Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2025? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31, 2025

Germany Energy Economics

Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2025?

26%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves yes if there is a plant delivering electricity at any point during that year.

#politics #world #technology #energy

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is predicting YES at 25%

Does a smaller-scale research reactor count (assuming it produces electricity)? Does it have to be connected to the grid?

Like I'm guessing you meant only "baseload grid-scale power generation reactors" but one naive reading of this would say that it should resolve true if HMS Astute was docked quayside in Hamburg for some reason.

is predicting NO at 25%

@Adam : Ok, yeah I think it should provide power to the grid. (Though maybe to industry should count to?)

is predicting NO at 50%

Ah, I miss the image bot.

You make both reasonable points.

bought Ṁ45 of YES

Currently two running on standby, seems like public sentiment has changed since Russian gas became a risk:

https://nuklearia.de/2021/06/16/umfragen-mehrheit-der-deutschen-will-kernkraft-fuer-den-klimaschutz-2/

bought Ṁ70 of NO

As a German, this market seems to be way too high. The current government decided to shut down all nuclear powerplants in 2023 and will be in power till 2025.

bought Ṁ50 NO from 27% to 26%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 28% to 27%

Олег Кобзарев

bought Ṁ50 YES from 25% to 28%

sold Ṁ9 NO at 25%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 24% to 25%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 25% to 24%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 27% to 25%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 26% to 27%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 25% to 26%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 25%

Kevin Rosentrater

bought Ṁ10 YES at 25%

Роман Куприй

bought Ṁ10 YES from 24% to 25%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 23% to 24%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 24% to 23%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 23% to 24%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 23%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 25% to 23%

Thomas Dingemanse

bought Ṁ10 NO from 26% to 25%

sold Ṁ75 NO from 24% to 26%

sold Ṁ80 NO from 22% to 24%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 22%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22%

Gavin McCarthy-Bui

bought Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 23%

bought Ṁ40 NO from 23% to 22%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 23%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ100 NO at 22% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 25% to 23%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 25%

bought Ṁ65 NO from 27% to 25%

Michael Coonrad

bought Ṁ10 NO at 27%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 28% to 27%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 30% to 28%

Björn Jürgens

sold Ṁ26 YES from 32% to 30%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 31% to 32%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ100 NO at 31% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 23% to 32%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 23%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ55/Ṁ100 NO at 22% (cancelled)

Björn Jürgens

bought Ṁ40 YES from 20% to 24%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 20%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 21% to 20%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 22% to 21%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 22%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 22%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 22%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 23%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 23%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ22/Ṁ100 NO at 22% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ50 YES from 18% to 23%