Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2025?
186
600
2K
2025
3%
chance

Resolves yes if there is a plant delivering electricity at any point during that year.

#politics #world #technology #energy


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bought Ṁ50 of NO

Doesn't it take like over 5 years to build?

predicts YES

@na_pewno they could restart an existing one

What about purchasing French power?

predicts NO

@tobid No, this question is only about power plants in germany.

predicts NO

It seems people believe that some nuclear power plant starts up in 2025 since the market for 2024 is much lower?

predicts YES

@MaxPayne thanks

predicts NO

@Adam There is also the following if you want to give me better odds. 😁

predicts NO

What reactors currently count as operating in germany?

predicts NO

@Svenbonne As far as I can tell that should be Emsland A, Isar 2, and Neckarwestheim 2, right now.

Electricity Production | Energy-Charts

predicts NO

@TimP Thanks for this clarification!

So we are just consindering industrial sized nuklear powerplants, right?

predicts NO

@Svenbonne I mean there aren't really any other? But I guess I would count pretty much any nuclear powerplant.

predicts NO

@TimP What about research reactors. There is at least one:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FRM_II

I assume NO because it is not for “power”.

predicts NO

@MaxPayne Right, only powerplants.

predicts YES

Does a smaller-scale research reactor count (assuming it produces electricity)? Does it have to be connected to the grid?

Like I'm guessing you meant only "baseload grid-scale power generation reactors" but one naive reading of this would say that it should resolve true if HMS Astute was docked quayside in Hamburg for some reason.

predicts NO

@Adam : Ok, yeah I think it should provide power to the grid. (Though maybe to industry should count to?)

predicts NO

Ah, I miss the image bot.

You make both reasonable points.

bought Ṁ45 of YES

Currently two running on standby, seems like public sentiment has changed since Russian gas became a risk:

https://nuklearia.de/2021/06/16/umfragen-mehrheit-der-deutschen-will-kernkraft-fuer-den-klimaschutz-2/

bought Ṁ70 of NO

As a German, this market seems to be way too high. The current government decided to shut down all nuclear powerplants in 2023 and will be in power till 2025.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Jannik not only that, the 3 plants that were just shut down are already headed for dismantling. The 3 plants that shut down EOY 2021 are already fully inoperable because of that

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