Will Japan continue to have negative population growth every year through 2050?

Japan has been experiencing high levels of population collapse for the past few years. This question resolves if most public data continues to show a population decline year over year until the end of 2050. Exact resolution details are difficult to acertain given the scale of the question.

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@ThomasMurphy Will you resolve as soon as one year shows populatiion growth?


AGI should lead to a reduction in deaths and an increase in births.(artificial wombs and the like) Other possibility is mass immigration.

predicts NO

Easy bet that it decreases over all, but given how close it is to net-zero I would be incredibly surprised if there wasn't a single year that went positive. I feel like the market may be overvalued based on people misinterpreting the resolution criteria.

predicts NO

@spider Something like one really awful terrible year where a lot of old people died (bad flu season, pandemic, etc.), then a corresponding reduction in old people dying in the immediate next year, might be enough. But if the rate keeps going down faster and faster, it will be out of reach for a one-year miracle spike.

According to the data about the Japanese population is possible to conclude that it is more likely that it decreases. Here are some facts to support that prediction:

predicts NO

@CamilaHennessey Thank you for the detailed report. The thing I am not quite sure of is the following: just because the population will be lower in the future, is no guarantee that every single year will have negative growth.

What does social security have to do with it?

@CamilaHennessey This is an interesting insight. Japan’s population has been slightly but steadily declining since the early 1970’s and is expected to accelerate in its decline. Based on fertility data, the population is expected to keep decreasing in the next 20 years according to the national institute of population and social security research.  

Japan needs one of these 3 things in the next 27 years

  1. Baby boom

  2. Immigration boom

  3. Medical breakthrough on longevity

predicts NO

@MatthewLichti I guess I am betting No in the face of an absolutely ridiculous situation because it seems like they have to....do something? Within 25 years. Or how will the aging population even support itself?

But all the trends look absolutely terrible. I should probably be betting Yes.

predicts NO

@Eliza Even if they make new policies encouraging births and immigration, and start to stabilize, that still won't guarantee a single year of positive population growth.

predicts NO

@Eliza Yes. Stabilizing wouldn't really help. Even getting the fertility rate up to 2 probably isn't enough when there are more 80 year olds than 30 year olds.

Lots of things can happen in 27 years. If China invades Taiwan and Japan takes in a few percent of the refugees, the population goes up that year. Japan is really stingy about taking refugees but I think they would make an exception for Taiwan because they're such close friends.

Lots of people are predicting AGI in the next 20 years. That would probably mean lots of longevity breakthroughs assuming we don't all get ourselves killed.

predicts NO

@Eliza It looks like the largest generation (around 75) is already dying off and will be totally gone by 2050. Their children (around 50) will also be dying off by then. Even if the birth figure continues to shrink, the old people count will be shrinking a lot faster.

@Eliza Also, 25+ years is still plenty of time for major trend changes that can impact this. (Two ways I know of for a country to increase population are births and immigration.)

If this question was for 2075 I would be way more confident in No.

Based on my interpretation, in the future, if there's no population decline even for 1 year this should resolve NO. Is that how this works?

Also what sources would you accept here?

predicts NO

@SaiPranav I assume it means if one single year has a 0.00001% population growth, resolves No. If every single year has a negative growth rate, then it would resolve Yes. If that is not the case I'll be taking it to Manifold Court.

predicts NO


@Eliza That is how I would resolve. Every year since 2010 has had negative which is the reasoning behind this market

@SaiPranav I don’t really know for sources because it is so far out, right now most figures are based on UN population estimates which is likely what I’d go off of

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