Japan's demographic trajectory, as evidenced by the data, strongly suggests that the population will continue to decline in the foreseeable future. The current population of 123.3 million in 2023 is projected to decrease significantly, falling by 23% to 95 million by 2050 and a more substantial drop of over 29% to 87 million by 2070. These statistics underscore the persistent challenges of an aging population and declining birth rates in Japan. The government's acknowledgment of the ongoing decline until 2050 further solidifies the conclusion that Japan is facing a sustained trend of population reduction. This demographic decline not only poses social and economic challenges but also indicates a long-term pattern that is likely to persist, highlighting the need for comprehensive strategies to address the implications of a shrinking population in the coming decades.
Japan has experienced the demographic challenges of an aging population and declining birth rate. Japan's population is declining and there are concerns about the future demographic and economic impact. It has been announced by the Japanese government that the population will continue to decline until 2050.
Japan's population in 2023 was 123.3 million, and it is projected to continue to decline, decreasing by 23% to 95 million in 2050 and by more than 29% to 87 million in 2070.
https://www.ipss.go.jp/site-ad/index_english/esuikei/econ2.html
https://www.sangiin.go.jp/japanese/annai/chousa/rippou_chousa/backnumber/2007pdf/20070907087.pdf
https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000273900.pdf
https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/2021np/pdf/2021gaiyou.pdf
@YasuhiroMizoguchi As your analysis shows, the Japanese population will decrease. Japan's population peaked at 128.08 million in 2008. However, the number of deaths began to exceed the number of births around the same year and began to decline. Japan's total fertility rate (1.30 in 2021) remains far below the population replacement level (2.06-2.07) required to maintain the size of the population, and the total population is expected to continue to decline at a rate of about 700,000 people per year. Japan's total population has entered a long-term process of population decline, and after falling below 110 million in 2044, it is estimated to continue to decline, reaching 100 million in 2056 and 90 million in 2067.
The future population is estimated based on three factors: births, deaths, and international population movements.
2024：The number of people aged 100 and over will exceed 100,000.
2027：The percentage of the population aged 65 and over = the "aging rate" will exceed 30%.
2031：The number of deaths in Japan will exceed 1.6 million. The average age of the total population will exceed 50 years old.
2032：The average age of the total population exceeds 50 years old. The working-age population (15 to 64 years old) will fall below 70 million.
2033：The "working age population" between the ages of 0 and 14 will exceed 1.6 million. The number of children between the ages of 0 and 14 will fall below 12 million.
2035：The population of 18-year-olds will fall below 1 million. The population of 18-year-olds will fall below 1 million.
2040：The number of people who will die in Japan will fall to about 167 million. The number of deaths in Japan will peak at approximately 1.67 million.
2043： The number of people who will die in Japan will peak at about 1.67 million.
The "elderly population" (65 years old and over) will peak at approximately 39.53 million. The number of children born in Japan, including those born to foreigners, will fall below 700,000.
2044：Total population will fall below 110 million. The population of 18-year-olds will fall below 800,000.
2056：The total population will fall below 100 million.
2067：Total population will fall below 90 million.
https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/e/zenkoku_e2023/pp_zenkoku2023e.asp
https://www8.cao.go.jp/kourei/whitepaper/w-2012/zenbun/s1_1_1_02.html
https://www.nissay.co.jp/enjoy/keizai/157.html
https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai-shimon/kaigi/special/future/sentaku/s2_1.html