Will life expectancy in any prefectures of Japan reach 90 years before end of 2040?
2
1kṀ55
2040
52%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for data for 2024-2040 (inclusive), there is at least one case where any Japanese prefecture reports total average life expectancy of 90 years or more, according to the Japanese Mortality Database
https://www.ipss.go.jp/p-toukei/JMD/index-en.asp
or any official data published in English.
If by the time the first report for 2040 appears, there are no such cases, the market will be resolved to "No".

Background and Considerations

As of 2020, the highest total average life expectancies in Japan were observed in prefectures:

  • Shiga: 85.71 years

  • Kyoto: 85.54 years

  • Nagano: 85.51 years

Over the last decades before 2020, life expectancy increased gradually across all prefectures. Then, there was a slight decline and, until 2023, the records of 2020 were not overcome. However, оngoing public health efforts and advancements in medical care may accelerate increases in life expectancy. Thus, while reaching a 90-year average life expectancy by 2040 is ambitious, it remains a possibility, particularly in regions with historically higher longevity.

You can use tables and charts at Wikipedia for estimation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Japanese_prefectures_by_life_expectancy

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy