@maskedtorah and I are wrote a LessWrong sequence on Goodhart's Law, one main post plus an appendix with proofs. Will at least one of the posts be curated no later than June 4?
Usually, posts that will be curated are curated within 2 weeks of publication. There have been 12 curated posts in the last 10 weeks before 4/23, with the minimum karma being 146. The base rate for curation of >100 karma posts appears to be 10-13%.
We spent about 3 person-weeks on the post, and it covers material I glossed in this shortform. The main hope I have is that we clarify and build on two very well-received posts:
Goodhart Taxonomy by Garrabrant, curated, 192 karma
Why the tails come apart by Thrasymachus, 294 karma (but not curated)
Factors against include the low base rate and the a competing, somewhat less technical post by Eric Neyman will soon be up.
The link to our post will be added soon, hopefully tonight. (Edit: added)
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@ThomasKwa If anyone thinks it's unethical for me to trade for some reason, I'd like to know. But I won't be affected by the incentive, because I still really want to be a curated LW author.